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Deal Autopsies

Autopsy No. 1 · Walmart and Flipkart, 2018

Walmart's $16 billion bet on Flipkart

In 2018 Walmart paid $16 billion for 77% of Flipkart, India's biggest online store and a company still losing money. We take the deal apart: who got paid, what Walmart bought, and what the price needed to come true.

By Unknot PartnersResearch current to 20 October 2026141 sources · 103 numbers reported · 47 estimated

01In four numbers

The deal at a glance

Price paid
$16bn1,2₹1.05 lakh crore
Stake bought
77%1,2Of Flipkart, just after the deal
Implied valuation
$20.8bnPrice ÷ stake. Reported at the time as $20.8bn3,4
Announced
May 20181Announced 9 May 2018. Closed 18 August 20186

In May 2018 Walmart agreed to pay $16bn (₹1.05 lakh crore) for 77% of Flipkart, which valued the whole company at $20.8bn.

It was a bet that a loss-making company could grow into that price. Eight years on, the bet is still open.

A stake is the share of a company someone owns.

A valuation is what the whole company is worth at the price paid in a deal. Here it is the price divided by the stake: $16bn ÷ 77% = $20.8bn.

It is a post-money valuation: the value just after the new money arrives. Before it arrived, the pre-money value was $18.8bn.

Only $2bn was new money that went into Flipkart itself. The other $14bn went to the investors and founders who sold their shares.

The 77% counts the shares employees could get from their options. Counted on shares already issued, Walmart bought 81%.

The deal closed on 18 August 2018, after India's competition regulator approved it.

Show the working: the valuation
  1. Implied valuation= price paid ÷ stake bought= $16bn ÷ 77.0% = $20.8bn
  2. Pre-money valuation= post-money valuation − new money= $20.8bn − $2bn = $18.8bn
  3. Paid to sellers= price paid − new money= $16bn − $2bn = $14bn

02From start-up to sale

The road to the deal

Flipkart was started in 2007 by Sachin Bansal and Binny Bansal with about ₹4 lakh of their own savings.

It grew on funding rounds: sales of new shares to investors, each at a price that puts a value on the whole company.

The first outside cheque, from Accel, was $800,000. Five years later a single round raised $1bn.

The valuation climbed from about $1bn in 2012 to $15.2bn in 2015.

The chart uses a log scale: each step up the axis is ten times the one below. A jump from $10m to $100m looks as big as one from $1bn to $10bn.

Then it stalled. No new round came in 2016, and funds that owned Flipkart shares cut the values they reported, one to about $5.5bn.

A markdown is a fund's own estimate of what its shares are worth. Nobody buys or sells at that price.

In 2017 Tencent, eBay and Microsoft bought in at $11.6bn, below the 2015 price. SoftBank followed with about $2.5bn.

Valuation, log scale

What Flipkart was worth at each round

Each line on the axis is ten times the one below, so early jumps and late jumps of the same size look the same.

  • Post-money valuation at a priced round
  • Fund markdown (a mark, not a round)
  • Walmart's price
Only rounds with a public valuation are plotted. Every round, valued or not, is in the timeline below.

  1. October 2007

    Founded, by Sachin Bansal and Binny Bansal

    Two engineers start selling books online with their own savings.

    Put in
    $9,0007,8
    ₹4 lakh

  2. October 2009

    First outside money, led by Accel

    Accel writes the first cheque. Its own pages date it to 2008, the earliest press reports to October 2009. No valuation was published.

    Raised
    $800,0009
    Post-money
    Not disclosed

  3. June 2010

    Tiger Global arrives, led by Tiger Global

    The start of Tiger Global's long run as Flipkart's biggest backer. Reported in June 2010; Tiger's letter places it in late 2009.

    Raised
    $8.6m11,12
    Post-money
    $42m11,12

  4. 16 June 2011

    Tiger again, led by Tiger Global

    Tiger doubles down. No valuation was published.

    Raised
    $20m13,14
    ₹89.6 crore
    Post-money
    Not disclosed

  5. August 2012

    Naspers and Iconiq join, led by Naspers and Iconiq

    With Tiger Global and Accel

    The South African internet group Naspers buys in. Flipkart is now one of India's best-funded start-ups.

    Raised
    $150m15,16
    Post-money
    $1bnest.

  6. 10 July 2013

    $200m from existing investors, led by Naspers

    With Accel, Tiger Global and Iconiq

    Only existing investors put money in.

    Raised
    $200m18
    Post-money
    $1.6bnest.

  7. 9 October 2013

    New backers join, led by Dragoneer, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Sofina and Vulcan Capital

    With Tiger Global

    With July's $200m, $360m in one year: then the most any Indian internet company had raised in a round.

    Raised
    $160m19
    Post-money
    $1.6bn20

  8. 22 May 2014

    Buys Myntra

    Flipkart buys the fashion site Myntra, paying largely in its own shares. Myntra's investors became Flipkart shareholders.

    Price
    $330m21

  9. 26 May 2014

    DST Global leads, led by DST Global

    With Tiger Global, Naspers and Iconiq

    No agreed valuation exists: estimates run from $1.6bn to $3bn.

    Raised
    $210m22
    Post-money
    Not disclosed

  10. 29 July 2014

    The $1bn round, led by Tiger Global and Naspers

    With GIC, Accel, DST Global, Iconiq, Morgan Stanley Investment Management and Sofina

    A billion dollars in one round. The value roughly quadruples in a year.

    Raised
    $1bn23,24
    Post-money
    $7bn24,25

  11. 20 December 2014

    Global funds pile in, led by Baillie Gifford, Greenoaks, Steadview, T. Rowe Price and Qatar Investment Authority

    With DST Global, GIC, Iconiq and Tiger Global

    Mutual funds and state-owned investment funds buy in at about $11bn.

    Raised
    $700m26
    Post-money
    $11bn27
    ₹69,000 crore

  12. July 2015

    The peak, led by Tiger Global and Steadview

    The high-water mark before Walmart.

    Raised
    $700m28,29
    Post-money
    $15.2bn29

  13. 31 December 2015

    First fund markdown

    A Morgan Stanley fund marks its shares down by about a quarter.

    Implied value
    $11bn30

  14. 1 April 2016

    Buys PhonePe

    Flipkart buys PhonePe, a payments start-up that had not yet launched. The price was not disclosed; Mint estimated $10m to $20m.

    Price
    Not disclosed

  15. 30 September 2016

    Deepest markdown

    Morgan Stanley's fund now implies about $5.5bn, a third of the 2015 price.

    Implied value
    $5.5bn32

  16. 30 November 2016

    Fidelity agrees

    A Fidelity fund lands in the same place.

    Implied value
    $5.6bn33

  17. 31 December 2016

    T. Rowe Price disagrees

    Funds now disagree by almost two to one on the same shares. Marks are opinions, not prices.

    Implied value
    $9.9bn34

  18. 10 April 2017

    Tencent, eBay and Microsoft, led by Tencent, eBay and Microsoft

    The first new money in almost two years, at a lower price than 2015. eBay also hands over eBay India for shares.

    Raised
    $1.4bn35,36
    ₹9,000 crore
    Post-money
    $11.6bn35,36

  19. 10 August 2017

    SoftBank Vision Fund, led by SoftBank Vision Fund

    SoftBank becomes the biggest shareholder. Shares bought from Tiger Global and others changed hands at $85 to $89 each.

    Paid
    $2.5bn38,39
    Post-money
    Not disclosed

  20. 27 April 2018

    Buyback from small holders

    Flipkart buys back about $350m of shares to cut its shareholder count, weeks before the deal.

    Shares bought
    $350m40
    Implied value
    $17.7bn40

  21. 9 May 2018

    Walmart buys control, led by Walmart

    About $16bn for about 77%. The deal this autopsy is about.

    Paid
    $16bn1
    ₹1.05 lakh crore
    Post-money
    $20.8bn3
    ₹1.39 lakh crore

03The cap table

Who owned what

A cap table is the list of who owns what share of a company.

Just before the deal, SoftBank and Tiger Global each held about a fifth of Flipkart.

The two founders held about 5% each. Options granted to employees made up about 4%.

Fully diluted means counting every share that could exist if all those options became shares. Walmart's 77% is on that basis.

The colour of each bar shows what the holder did when Walmart came: sold everything, sold part, or kept everything.

Holders of about 42% of the company sold everything. Tencent and Microsoft, which Walmart wanted as partners, sold nothing.

Shareholders, May 2018

Who held the company just before the deal

Each bar is a share of the company. The colour says what the holder did when Walmart arrived.

  • Sold everything
  • Sold part
  • Kept everything
  • Not public
Stakes come from different sources and are not all measured the same way (some on fully diluted shares, some on shares issued). We use each holder's best public figure and balance the table with Others.
Shareholding just before the deal
HolderStakeIn the dealBasis
Tiger Global20.0%Sold partReported42
SoftBank Vision Fund20.0%Sold everythingReported41
Naspers11.2%Sold everythingReported43,44
Accel6.4%Sold partReported42
Tencent6.0%Kept everythingReported45
Sachin Bansal5.5%Sold everythingReported46,47
eBay5.4%Sold everythingReported48
Binny Bansal5.2%Sold partReported47
Microsoft1.6%Kept everythingEstimated
Others14.4%Not publicEstimated
Employee stock options4.4%Not publicEstimated
Total100.0%
Show the working: does it add up?
  1. Total= every holder's stake added up= 20.0% + 20.0% + 11.2% + 6.40% + 6.00% + 5.50% + 5.44% + 5.20% + 1.60% + 14.4% + 4.38% = 100.0%

04Returns

Who made what

Two numbers tell you how an investment went.

The multiple is money out divided by money in. It ignores how long the money was tied up.

The IRR, or internal rate of return, is the yearly return that makes money in and money out balance once timing is counted. It rewards speed.

Accel wrote Flipkart's first cheque. By our estimate it turned about $100m into about $1.6bn: 16x over 8.8 years.

SoftBank made only 1.5x, but in 0.8 years, so its IRR was about 74%.

Naspers sits in between: 3.6x over 6.0 years, about 33% a year. Naspers itself reported about 32%.43

Sachin Bansal, a founder, sold his stake for about $1bn. Against his share of the founders' savings that is 222,222x, which shows why IRR means little for founders: they paid in years of work, not cash.

Where an investor kept some shares, we count them at Walmart's price and call that paper value: worth something, but not yet cash.

Most investors never published their exact amounts and dates. Where we had to estimate them, the row says est. and the working says how.

Each investor's money in, money out, multiple and IRR. Select a row to see the working.
InvestorMoney inMoney outMultipleIRRHeldIn the deal
est.$4,500$1bn222,222x211%10.8 yearsSold everything
est.$100m$1.6bn15.8x117%8.8 yearsSold part, kept part
est.$1.2bn$4.3bn3.58x43%3.7 yearsSold part, kept part
$607m$2.2bn3.63x33%6.0 yearsSold everything
$725m$1bn1.42x40%1.0 yearsSold everything
est.$2.5bn$3.8bn1.52x74%0.8 yearsSold everything

Select an investor to see the working. Money out includes the value of shares still held, where an investor kept some, priced as stated in its flows.

Yearly return

IRR by investor

The yearly return each investor earned, once timing is counted. Founders are in the table, not the chart. Select a bar to see its working.

  • Naspers
  • Other investors

Strategic investor

Naspers

The South African internet group bought in from 2012 and sold its whole 11.18% to Walmart. Naspers itself put its total investment at $616m and its return at about 32% a year.

Money in
$607m
Money out
$2.2bn
Multiple
3.63x
IRR
33.0%
Naspers's dated cash flows and how each is discounted at the IRR.
DateWhatFlowYearsDiscountToday's value
Aug 2012First investment [17]−⁠$102m0.001.000−⁠$102m
Jul 2013Second investment [17]−⁠$140m0.920.770−⁠$108m
May 2014Third investment [56]−⁠$51m1.750.608−⁠$31m
Aug 2014Part of the $1bn round [57]−⁠$242m2.000.566−⁠$137m
Apr 2017Shares bought from other holders [58]−⁠$71m4.670.264−⁠$19m
18 Aug 2018Whole stake sold to Walmart [43, 59]$2.2bn6.010.180$397m
Adds up to$0

Years count days from 15 August 2012 divided by 365. Discount = 1 ÷ (1 + IRR) raised to the years. At the IRR, today's values add up to zero.

Show the working
  1. Money in= the sum of every investment= $102m + $140m + $51m + $242m + $71m = $607m
  2. Money out= the sum of everything received= $2.2bn = $2.2bn
  3. Multiple= money out ÷ money in= $2.2bn ÷ $607m = 3.63x
  4. Time held= days from the first flow to the last ÷ 365= 2,194 ÷ 365 = 6.01
  5. IRR= the yearly rate that makes the discounted flows add up to zero= 33.0%

06Your model

You decide

Here you take Walmart's seat in 2018 and test the price.

The model builds Flipkart up from its shoppers. It starts from FY2018, the last full year before the deal: about 54 million active shoppers, people who bought at least once that year, placing about 3.7 orders each at about $37.50 an order. That makes $7.5bn of GMV.

On an average order, Flipkart kept about 9.6% of the price as commission and fees and earned about 0.6% more from advertising. It paid about $2.36 to deliver the order and spent about 7.2% of its value on marketing and discounts.

Then come the overheads: staff, technology and offices, which do not rise with each order. After them, Flipkart lost about $4.62 on every order, or $924m in the year.

Twelve sliders set the future, in three groups: how big Flipkart gets, what each order earns and costs, and how the bet ends. Each comes with why it matters, a sensible range and what really happened. Inputs set "by FY2028" move in a straight line from their FY2018 value to yours, then stay there.

The $2bn of new money pays the first losses. After that, every owner tops up in line with its stake, so Walmart pays 77% of each top-up.

In the exit year you choose, the model values the business at a multiple of that year's revenue, adds its cash and any extra value you give it, such as PhonePe, and hands Walmart its 77%.

At our base case Walmart earns 4.1% a year, and gets back $1.45 for every dollar it puts in. Flipkart's first profitable year: FY2027.

To earn its 10% target, Walmart should have paid no more than $8.7bn. At the price it did pay, Flipkart needed about 368 million shoppers by FY2028, not 218 million: GMV of $66.2bn, growing 24.3% a year.

How big Flipkart gets

Shoppers, how often they order and what they spend set GMV: the value of everything sold on the site.

15%

How fast Flipkart's active shoppers grow each year, from 54 million in FY2018.

0%30%
Why it matters, and what happened
Why it matters.
Shoppers are the base of everything. Each new one brings orders and revenue, but also delivery and marketing costs.
A sensible range.
About 90 million Indians shopped online in 2017, and RedSeer expected 120 million in 2018, so Flipkart already had most of them. Forrester saw online retail growing about 29% a year. 15% a year doubles Flipkart's shoppers in five years; 20% a year would mean about 330 million by FY2028.
What happened.
Flipkart stopped giving customer numbers after 2020. Inc42 reported about 220 million monthly users in May 2026, a different measure from 2018's yearly active customers. India's online shoppers grew from about 90 million in 2017 to at least 290 million in 2025: about 16% a year.
6.0

How many orders the average active shopper places in a year.

FY2018: 3.7

2.015.0
Why it matters, and what happened
Why it matters.
More orders from the same shoppers is the cheapest growth there is: no marketing is needed to win them.
A sensible range.
About 3.7 in FY2018 by our estimate, against about 5 for the average Indian online shopper in 2017 (RedSeer's orders ÷ shoppers). Groceries and everyday goods are bought often, so 6 to 10 by FY2028 is a plausible band.
What happened.
Flipkart stopped publishing order counts. By 2023 Ekart was delivering more than 100 million shipments a month, roughly six times FY2018's pace, though shipments include Myntra's and other sellers' parcels.
$30

What the average order is worth, in US dollars.

FY2018: $38

$15$60
Why it matters, and what happened
Why it matters.
Smaller orders mean more deliveries for the same GMV, and a delivery costs much the same whatever is in the box. A weaker rupee also shrinks every order in dollars.
A sensible range.
About $37.50 in FY2018 (₹2,417). Orders get smaller as shopping spreads to smaller towns and everyday goods. The rupee also fell from about ₹64 to the dollar in FY2018 to about ₹87 by 2026, which alone turns a ₹2,417 order from $37.50 into about $28.
What happened.
Flipkart never published it. GMV of about $29bn in FY2023 over more than 1.2 billion shipments works out at about $24 or less each, as cheaper goods, its low-price app Shopsy and quick commerce grew, and the rupee weakened.
What each order earns and costs

Flipkart keeps a slice of each sale, sells advertising, and pays for delivery, marketing and its own staff, tech and offices.

10.0%

The share of each sale Flipkart keeps as commission and fees from sellers, including charges for payments and delivery.

FY2018: 9.6%

3.0%20.0%
Why it matters, and what happened
Why it matters.
The same GMV earns more revenue if Flipkart keeps more of it. Charge sellers too much, though, and they, and their prices, go elsewhere.
A sensible range.
About 9.6% across the group in FY2018. Flipkart's own marketplace kept about 7% of its GMV, advertising included; fashion, through Myntra, charged sellers more. Raising fees is hard while Amazon courts the same sellers, so 8% to 12% is the plausible band.
What happened.
Flipkart has been cutting seller fees, not raising them: from December 2025 it charged no commission on eligible products under ₹1,000. Advertising became the growing slice instead.
3.00%

What sellers and brands pay Flipkart to put their products in front of shoppers, as a share of GMV.

FY2018: 0.60%

0.00%6.00%
Why it matters, and what happened
Why it matters.
Advertising costs a marketplace little to deliver, so most of it is profit. It is where the world's big marketplaces make much of their money.
A sensible range.
Only about 0.6% in FY2018. A marketplace with millions of sellers competing for attention can charge for it, so 2% to 4% of GMV is within reach.
What happened.
Advertising became Flipkart's fastest-growing earner: $1.1bn in FY2026, up 31% on the year. Against GMV of around $30bn, that is roughly 3.5%.
$1.50

What it costs to pick, pack and deliver an average order, in US dollars.

FY2018: $2.36

$0.50$4.00
Why it matters, and what happened
Why it matters.
It is paid on every order, whatever its size, so it decides whether small orders can ever make money.
A sensible range.
About $2.36 in FY2018, from Ekart's costs. Industry estimates put a delivery at about $2 in 2017. Scale, denser routes and pickup points push it down; returns, about a fifth of orders, push it up. $1 to $1.50 by FY2028 would be a big improvement.
What happened.
Flipkart's own cost per order is not published. Across Indian e-commerce, delivery costs fell about 8% a year from 2018 to 2021, by Bain's count; at that pace FY2018's $2.36 would be about $1.20 by FY2026.
3.0%

What Flipkart spends to win and keep shoppers, including discounts it pays for, as a share of GMV.

FY2018: 7.2%

0.0%15.0%
Why it matters, and what happened
Why it matters.
The fight with Amazon was fought with discounts. Every point of GMV spent here comes straight off profit.
A sensible range.
About 7.2% in FY2018, and that is a floor: the press put all-in cash burn at 12% to 15% of GMV. A business that no longer has to buy its growth might spend 2% to 4%.
What happened.
Flipkart Group spent $565m on advertising and promotion in FY2026, roughly 2% of GMV of around $30bn, and earned about twice that from the advertising it sold. The discounts it funds through its prices are not reported.
8%

How fast staff, technology and office costs grow each year, from about $676m in FY2018.

0%20%
Why it matters, and what happened
Why it matters.
Overheads do not shrink as the business grows. The hope is that sales grow faster, so each order carries less of them.
A sensible range.
Flipkart's staff costs rose about 58% in FY2019 alone, its first year under Walmart. 5% a year is a tight leash; 15% is an empire being built.
What happened.
Group staff costs were $957m in FY2026, share-based pay included, against about $416m in FY2018: growth of about 11% a year in dollars.
How the bet ends

When Walmart's stake is valued, at what price, and the return it needs.

FY2028

The year Walmart's stake is valued, as if it were sold or listed.

FY2023FY2033
Why it matters, and what happened
Why it matters.
A later exit gives Flipkart longer to grow into the price, but every extra year must also earn the target return.
A sensible range.
The deal let minority holders demand a listing from August 2022, four years after closing. FY2028, ten years on, is our base case: long enough for India's online market to grow up.
What happened.
No listing yet. Flipkart moved its home to India in March 2026 so it could list there, but in May 2026 Walmart asked it to reach EBITDA breakeven within FY2027 first, and Inc42 reported the listing could wait until 2028.
7.0x

What the business is worth in the exit year, as a multiple of that year's revenue.

1.0x15.0x
Why it matters, and what happened
Why it matters.
The value at the end is most of what Walmart gets back, so this one input moves the answer more than any other.
A sensible range.
Revenue here is fees and advertising, the way a marketplace counts it. In May 2018 eBay traded at 4.0x its revenue, MercadoLibre at 10.3x and Alibaba at 12.6x. Our base case sits about halfway between eBay and MercadoLibre; faster growth and real profits earn more.
What happened.
Private prices for Flipkart in 2025 and 2026 ranged from about $35bn to $38.2bn, set by the company's own option buybacks rather than by a market.
$0

What PhonePe, the payments app Flipkart owned in 2018, is worth in the exit year. Walmart gets its 77% of it on top of Flipkart.

$0$30bn
Why it matters, and what happened
Why it matters.
PhonePe came with the deal. Few valued it highly in 2018; it went on to become India's biggest payments app.
A sensible range.
Leave it at $0 to judge Flipkart on its own. PhonePe was valued at $5.5bn in 2020 and about $12.9bn in 2023, and its revived IPO target is about $10bn.
What happened.
PhonePe split from Flipkart in 2022. Walmart now owns about 72% of it directly, and put more money in along the way, which this model leaves out.
10.0%

The yearly return Walmart needs for the bet to be worth its risk.

5.0%20.0%
Why it matters, and what happened
Why it matters.
The higher the bar, the less the stake was worth paying for, and the bigger Flipkart has to become to clear it.
A sensible range.
Walmart did not publish one. It borrowed for this deal at 2.85% to 4.05% a year (its June 2018 bonds), and a risky bet in a new market should earn well above that. 10% is a common starting point; 15% or more is demanding.
What happened.
On the latest private prices, Walmart's return so far is about 8.1% a year by our estimate (section 7).

Walmart's IRR

4.1%

Misses its 10% target

On these numbers Walmart earns 4.1% a year. To earn its target it should have paid no more than $8.7bn, not $16bn.

Money back for every $1

$1.45

What its stake is worth in FY2028, against the price and every top-up

Most worth paying

$8.7bn

To earn 10% a year. It paid $16bn

First year in profit

FY2027

FY2018: a loss of $924m

Stake value in FY2028

$28bn

77% of $36.3bn

Shoppers in FY2028

218m

Needed to earn the target: 368m

GMV in FY2028

$39.3bn

Up 18.0% a year. Needed: $66.2bn

Profit or loss per order

$0.39

In FY2028. FY2018: −⁠$4.62

Value per shopper

$166

In FY2028. The 2018 price valued each at $385

Walmart's top-ups

$3.3bn

Its 77% of each top-up once the $2bn of new money runs out

Take the model with you

An Excel workbook that opens with your slider values: the deal data, the finished model with live formulas, a blank template, and a sheet that checks the workbook against this page.

The size of the bet

GMV each year: your Flipkart against what the price needed

Both lines start from $7.5bn in FY2018. The grey line grows at the rate that earns Walmart exactly its target.

  • Your Flipkart
  • What the price needed

Profit or loss

Flipkart's profit or loss each year

FY2018 is the reported starting point. On your numbers the first profit comes in FY2027.

  • Loss
  • Profit

Walmart's cash flows

What Walmart pays in, and what its stake is worth at the end

Grey bars are money in: the price, then its share of each top-up once the cash runs out. The accent bar is its share of the value at the end.

One order, start to finish

What Flipkart makes or loses on each order

An average order in FY2018, and in FY2028 on your numbers. Staff, tech and office costs are shared across every order.

Revenue and costs per order, FY2018 and FY2028
Per orderFY2018FY2028
The shopper pays$37.50$30.00
Commission and fees$3.60$3.00
Advertising$0.22$0.90
Revenue per order$3.82$3.90
Delivery−⁠$2.36−⁠$1.50
Marketing and discounts−⁠$2.71−⁠$0.90
Staff, tech and offices−⁠$3.38−⁠$1.11
Profit or loss per order−⁠$4.62$0.39
Show the working: Walmart's IRR
  1. Shoppers in FY2028= start shoppers × (1 + shopper growth) ^ years= 54.0m × (1 + 15.0%) ^ 10 = 218m
  2. GMV in FY2028= shoppers × orders per shopper × spend per order= 218m × 6.0 × $30.00 = $39.3bn
  3. Revenue in FY2028= GMV × (commission and fees + advertising)= $39.3bn × (10.0% + 3.00%) = $5.1bn
  4. Profit in FY2028= revenue − delivery − marketing − staff, tech and offices= $5.1bn − $2bn − $1.2bn − $1.5bn = $506m
  5. Value of the business= revenue × exit multiple= $5.1bn × 7.00x = $35.8bn
  6. Value of the shares= value of the business + cash + extra value= $35.8bn + $550m + $0 = $36.3bn
  7. The buyer's share= value of the shares × stake= $36.3bn × 77.0% = $28bn
  8. Extra money the buyer puts in= stake × top-ups when the cash runs out, all years= $3.3bn
  9. Money back for every $1= buyer's share ÷ (price + extra money)= $28bn ÷ ($16bn + $3.3bn) = 1.45x
  10. The buyer's IRR= the yearly rate that balances price, extra money and the share at the end= 4.12%
  11. Most worth paying= share at the end ÷ (1 + target) ^ years − extra money in today's terms= $28bn ÷ (1 + 10.0%) ^ 10 − $2.1bn = $8.7bn
Show the working: what the price needed
  1. Money in, in today's terms= price + each year's extra money ÷ (1 + target) ^ year= $16bn + $2.1bn = $18.1bn
  2. Stake value needed in FY2028= money in × (1 + target) ^ years= $18.1bn × (1 + 10.0%) ^ 10 = $46.8bn
  3. Company value needed= stake value ÷ stake= $46.8bn ÷ 77.0% = $60.8bn
  4. Revenue needed= (company value − cash − extra value) ÷ exit multiple= ($60.8bn − $550m − $0) ÷ 7.00x = $8.6bn
  5. GMV needed= revenue needed ÷ (commission and fees + advertising)= $8.6bn ÷ 13.0% = $66.2bn
  6. Shoppers needed= GMV needed ÷ (orders per shopper × spend per order)= $66.2bn ÷ (6.0 × $30.00) = 368m
  7. GMV growth needed= (GMV needed ÷ start GMV) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1= ($66.2bn ÷ $7.5bn) ^ (1 ÷ 10) − 1 = 24.3%
Show the year-by-year table
The model year by year, in US dollars
YearShoppersOrdersGMVRevenueDeliveryMarketingOverheadsProfitCash leftWalmart tops upWalmart cash flow
FY2018 (deal)54m200m$7.5bn$765m−⁠$471m−⁠$542m−⁠$676m−⁠$924m$2bn$0−⁠$16bn
FY201962m244m$9bn$941m−⁠$555m−⁠$611m−⁠$730m−⁠$955m$1bn$0$0
FY202071m297m$10.7bn$1.2bn−⁠$650m−⁠$683m−⁠$789m−⁠$970m$76m$0$0
FY202182m361m$12.7bn$1.4bn−⁠$757m−⁠$758m−⁠$852m−⁠$963m$0$683m−⁠$683m
FY202294m437m$15.1bn$1.7bn−⁠$879m−⁠$834m−⁠$920m−⁠$928m$0$714m−⁠$714m
FY2023109m527m$17.8bn$2.1bn−⁠$1bn−⁠$909m−⁠$994m−⁠$856m$0$659m−⁠$659m
FY2024125m635m$20.9bn$2.5bn−⁠$1.2bn−⁠$982m−⁠$1.1bn−⁠$737m$0$567m−⁠$567m
FY2025144m763m$24.6bn$3bn−⁠$1.3bn−⁠$1bn−⁠$1.2bn−⁠$557m$0$429m−⁠$429m
FY2026165m915m$28.8bn$3.6bn−⁠$1.5bn−⁠$1.1bn−⁠$1.3bn−⁠$303m$0$234m−⁠$234m
FY2027190m1,096m$33.7bn$4.3bn−⁠$1.7bn−⁠$1.2bn−⁠$1.4bn$44m$44m$0$0
FY2028218m1,311m$39.3bn$5.1bn−⁠$2bn−⁠$1.2bn−⁠$1.5bn$506m$550m$0$28bn

FY2018 is the starting point: its cash is the $2bn of new money from the deal, and its cash flow is the $16bn price. Money is in US dollars.

07The aftermath

What happened next

Walmart closed the deal on 18 August 2018. What followed was not a straight line.

Within months India tightened its rules for foreign-owned online stores, and co-founder Binny Bansal left as group chief executive.

Walmart kept putting money in. Flipkart's value rose to $37.6bn in 2021, with most of PhonePe still inside.

PhonePe, bought by Flipkart in 2016 for a reported $10m to $20m, was then split off and valued on its own, at about $12.9bn in 2023.

Without PhonePe, Flipkart has been valued at $35bn to $38.2bn since 2023, in private deals and employee option buybacks.

An IPO, or initial public offering, is a company's first sale of shares on a stock exchange. Both Flipkart and PhonePe have planned one. Neither has happened.

Flipkart still lost ₹8,468 crore (about $968m) in FY2026, on revenue of ₹1,45,880 crore (about $16.7bn).

  1. 8 August 2018

    India's competition regulator approves the deal108

    The Competition Commission of India clears it. A traders' body says it will go to court.

  2. 18 August 2018

    Walmart closes the deal6

    Walmart holds about 77%. Tencent and Tiger Global keep board seats; Binny Bansal stays on as group chief executive.

  3. 17 September 2018

    The tax bill arrives109

    Walmart deposits ₹7,439 crore of Indian withholding tax on payments to 10 of the 44 selling shareholders; the tax department pursues the rest.

  4. 13 November 2018

    Binny Bansal resigns110

    The co-founder steps down as group chief executive after an investigation into a complaint about his personal conduct. Kalyan Krishnamurthy runs the group.

  5. 26 December 2018

    India changes the rules111

    Press Note 2 bars foreign-owned marketplaces from selling goods of vendors they own or control, from February 2019. Flipkart has to rework how it sources stock.

  6. 14 July 2020

    Walmart leads a $1.2bn round112

    Flipkart is valued at $24.9bn after the new money.

  7. 2 December 2020

    PhonePe starts to go its own way113

    Walmart leads a $700m round in the payments arm at $5.5bn after the money. PhonePe gets its own board.

  8. 12 July 2021

    The peak private price114

    A $3.6bn round led by GIC, CPP Investments, SoftBank Vision Fund 2 and Walmart values Flipkart at $37.6bn, with most of PhonePe still inside.

  9. 5 August 2021

    Enforcement Directorate notice115

    India's financial crime agency issues a foreign-exchange notice to Flipkart and its founders over alleged breaches between 2009 and 2015, reported at about ₹10,600 crore. It is still unresolved.

  10. 23 December 2022

    PhonePe fully separated116,117

    Shareholders led by Walmart buy PhonePe's Indian company directly; Flipkart keeps no stake. Walmart remains the majority owner of both.

  11. 18 January 2023

    PhonePe raises at $12bn118,119

    General Atlantic leads; the round reaches $850m by May. Walmart paid most of nearly $1bn of Indian tax triggered by PhonePe's move to India.

  12. 31 July 2023

    Tiger Global sells out55,120

    Walmart buys Tiger's remaining stake for about $1.4bn, valuing Flipkart at about $35bn without PhonePe.

  13. 1 September 2023

    Walmart tops up121,122

    Walmart discloses $3.5bn spent in six months on Flipkart shares from minority holders and on settling a PhonePe liability. Its Flipkart stake rises to about 85%.

  14. 24 May 2024

    Google invests123,124

    Google puts in about $350m as part of a Walmart-led round of about $1bn, at about $36bn.

  15. 3 December 2025

    Cheaper fees for sellers125

    Flipkart stops charging commission on eligible products under ₹1,000, saying it could cut some sellers' platform costs by up to 30%.

  16. 15 January 2026

    Supreme Court rules on Tiger's tax126,127

    India's top court holds that Tiger Global's gains on its 2018 sale are taxable in India, reversing a lower court.

  17. 9 March 2026

    Flipkart moves home72,128

    The holding company moves from Singapore to India, a step towards listing on an Indian exchange.

  18. 16 March 2026

    PhonePe pauses its IPO129,130

    After winning approval for a listing, PhonePe shelves it as markets fall; bankers had reportedly suggested about $9bn. In September it revived plans for early 2027 at about $10bn.

  19. 15 May 2026

    Profit before a listing131

    Walmart asks Flipkart to reach EBITDA breakeven within FY2027 before any IPO.

  20. 15 October 2026

    Still losing money73,74

    Flipkart Group reports FY2026 revenue of ₹1,45,880 crore, up 18%, and a net loss of ₹8,468 crore. No IPO papers have been filed.

After the deal, log scale

Flipkart and what it spun off, valued since Walmart bought in

Each point is a priced round, a stake purchase or a published valuation. The accent dot is the price paid in 2018.

  • Flipkart
  • PhonePe
  • Walmart's price

Walmart's money in since 2018, and what its stakes are worth now

Money in
$22.5bn
Worth now
$39.3bn
Multiple
1.74x
IRR so far
8.1%

Walmart never disclosed most of its later cheques, so several flows are estimates, and the values at the end are private prices, not market prices. Before tax, and before the losses Walmart's earnings absorbed along the way.

DateWhatFlowBasis
18 Aug 2018The deal−⁠$16bnReported2
24 Jun 2019Shares bought from Binny Bansal−⁠$76mReported134
14 Jul 2020Flipkart round−⁠$1.2bnEstimated
Dec 2020PhonePe round, first half−⁠$284mEstimated
12 Jul 2021Flipkart round−⁠$400mEstimated
19 Aug 2021PhonePe round, second half−⁠$284mReported135
17 Mar 2023PhonePe round−⁠$200mReported137
May 2023Minority shares and a PhonePe settlement−⁠$3.5bnReported121
21 Dec 2023Flipkart round−⁠$600mReported124
20 Oct 2026Flipkart stake at the latest price (paper value)$32.1bnEstimated
20 Oct 2026PhonePe stake at the IPO target (paper value)$7.2bnEstimated
Show the working: the return so far
  1. Time= days since the first flow ÷ 365= 2,985 ÷ 365 = 8.18
  2. Discount factor= 1 ÷ (1 + IRR) ^ years= 1 ÷ (1 + 8.06%) ^ 8.18 = 0.5305
  3. Balance= sum of every flow × its discount factor= $0
  4. IRR= the rate that makes the balance zero= 8.06%

Cheap or expensive?

On paper, Walmart has done reasonably well, but not brilliantly.

By our estimate it has put about $22.5bn into Flipkart and PhonePe since 2018. At the latest private prices its stakes are worth about $39.3bn.

That is 1.74x, or about 8.1% a year: positive, but below the 10% our model uses as Walmart's target.

Judged by our model, the price was expensive. At the base case it was worth paying about $8.7bn, not $16bn, and it needed GMV to grow 24.3% a year; Flipkart managed about 20% a year to 2025.

Judged as strategy, it looks better. Flipkart still had about 48% of Indian online retail in 2022, nearly double Amazon's share,75 and in 2023 PhonePe was handling payments at a rate of over a trillion dollars a year.77

PhonePe is the twist. It cost Flipkart a reported $10m to $20m in 2016, and its own IPO target is now about $10bn. Walmart owns about 72% of it.138

Our verdict: expensive as a financial investment so far, defensible as a strategic one, and not finished. Two IPOs, and whether Flipkart can make money, will settle it.

All of this rests on private prices, which no market has yet tested.

08For the seminar room

Discussion

Five questions to argue about. Try your own answer before you open the guides.

  1. 1

    Did Walmart overpay?

  2. 2

    How can a 1.5x return beat a 3.6x return?

  3. 3

    Who carried the risk, and who was paid for it?

  4. 4

    What would have to be true for Walmart to earn 10% a year?

  5. 5

    Was PhonePe the real prize?

The guides are a starting point, not the last word. Most of these questions have more than one good answer.

09Sources and methods

Sources

Every source we used, in order of first use on this page, then every number we had to estimate and how we did it.

We paraphrase our sources and link to the originals.

Every source

  1. 1Walmart Inc. via SEC EDGAR, 9 May 2018. Walmart to Invest in Flipkart Group, India's Innovative eCommerce Company (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)filing
  2. 2Walmart Inc. via SEC EDGAR, 28 March 2019. Walmart 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 January 2019filing
  3. 3TechCrunch, 9 May 2018. Walmart confirms $16B Flipkart investment, giving it 77% in India's e-commerce leadernews
  4. 4Scroll.in, 19 August 2018. Walmart completes deal to acquire 77% stake in Flipkart for nearly $16 billion (AFP)news
  5. 5Walmart Inc. via SEC EDGAR, 11 May 2018. Form 8-K: agreements to acquire Flipkart shares (primary and secondary)filing
  6. 6Walmart Inc., 18 August 2018. Walmart and Flipkart Announce Completion of Walmart Investment in Flipkartpress release
  7. 7The Next Web, 29 July 2011. Flipkart may have just become the first Indian billion-dollar internet companynews
  8. 8Forbes India, 28 April 2017. Flipsters work to stay ahead of Amazonnews
  9. 9Accel, 9 May 2018. Flipkart: realizing the India opportunitypress release
  10. 10MediaNama, 16 June 2010. Flipkart raises $8-10M in funding from Tiger Global: reportnews
  11. 11Hedgeweek, 31 July 2023. Walmart pays $1.4bn for Tiger Global's Flipkart stakenews
  12. 12Entrepreneur India, 31 July 2023. Walmart buys Tiger Global's stake in Flipkartnews
  13. 13TechCrunch, 16 June 2011. India's Amazon.com, Flipkart, raises $20 million from Tiger Globalnews
  14. 14afaqs!, 17 June 2011. Flipkart.com raises Rs 89.6 crore fundingnews
  15. 15MediaNama, 27 August 2012. Flipkart to raise $150M from Naspers, Tigernews
  16. 16AVCJ, 28 August 2012. VC-backed Flipkart raises Series D round of fundingnews
  17. 17Medianama, 26 November 2013. Naspers' investment in Flipkart (2012 and 2013 tranches)news
  18. 18TechCrunch, 10 July 2013. Flipkart raises $200Mnews
  19. 19TechCrunch, 9 October 2013. India's Amazon, Flipkart, raises another $160M, bringing total round to $360Mnews
  20. 20Forbes India, 26 May 2014. DST Global pumps $210 million into Flipkartnews
  21. 21MediaNama, 22 May 2014. Flipkart acquires Myntranews
  22. 22MediaNama, 26 May 2014. Flipkart raises $210M led by DST Globalnews
  23. 23GIC, 29 July 2014. GIC invests in Flipkart's $1 billion funding roundpress release
  24. 24TechCrunch, 29 July 2014. Indian e-commerce giant Flipkart raises massive $1B roundnews
  25. 25Moneylife, 29 July 2014. Flipkart gets $1 billion fresh funding, taking its value to about $7 billionnews
  26. 26TechCrunch, 20 December 2014. Flipkart raises $700 millionnews
  27. 27Inc42, 16 December 2014. Flipkart raises new round of funding, now valued at $11 Bnnews
  28. 28Global Corporate Venturing, 21 May 2015. Flipkart accelerates with $550m raised at $15bn valuationnews
  29. 29MediaNama, 28 September 2015. Flipkart confirms raising $700 million at a valuation of $15.2 billionnews
  30. 30VentureBeat, 27 February 2016. Falling unicorn: Flipkart's value drops from $15 billion to $11 billionnews
  31. 31MediaNama, 1 April 2016. Flipkart buys PhonePenews
  32. 32The Quint (BloombergQuint), 30 November 2016. Flipkart valuation at its lowest after Morgan Stanley's 38 percent markdownnews
  33. 33Inc42, 25 January 2017. Fidelity marks Flipkart down to $5.56 Bnnews
  34. 34Inc42, 18 January 2017. T. Rowe Price values Flipkart at $9.9 Bnnews
  35. 35Accel, 10 April 2017. Flipkart raises $1.4B from Tencent, eBay and Microsoft and acquires eBay India (Flipkart statement)press release
  36. 36Fortune, 10 April 2017. Flipkart raises $1.4 billion from Tencent, eBay and Microsoft (Reuters)news
  37. 37Forbes India, 12 April 2017. Flipkart: the billions are in. Next up, innovate to stay aheadnews
  38. 38Business Today, 10 August 2017. SoftBank Vision Fund invests $2.5 billion in Flipkart, becomes biggest shareholdernews
  39. 39Global Corporate Venturing, 10 August 2017. SoftBank Vision Fund puts $2.5bn in Flipkartnews
  40. 40Inc42, 4 May 2018. Flipkart buys back $350 Mn worth of shares to regain private company statusnews
  41. 41SoftBank Group Corp., 6 August 2018. Consolidated Financial Report for the three months ended 30 June 2018filing
  42. 42Reuters, 20 April 2018. Walmart could buy controlling stake in Flipkart as early as next week: sources (Reuters, as carried by Investing.com)news
  43. 43TechCrunch, 9 May 2018. Naspers sells its stake in Flipkart for $2.2 billionnews
  44. 44BizNews, 9 May 2018. Naspers' $2.2bn Flipkart salenews
  45. 45Inc42, 5 February 2018. SoftBank's Flipkart deal and the new shareholding (citing The Economic Times)news
  46. 46Inc42, 2 January 2019. Sachin Bansal paid Rs 699 Cr in tax on his Flipkart share sale (citing The Economic Times)news
  47. 47OfficeChai (citing The Economic Times), 5 February 2018. Binny Bansal sells Flipkart shares worth Rs 200 crore; personal stake goes from 7.6% to 5.2%news
  48. 48eBay Inc. via SEC EDGAR, 19 October 2017. eBay 10-Q for Q3 2017 (equity investment in Flipkart)filing
  49. 49Inc42, 22 November 2018. Flipkart's shareholding after the Walmart dealnews
  50. 50Walmart Inc. via SEC EDGAR, 6 September 2018. Share Issuance and Acquisition Agreement (Exhibit 10.1 to Walmart's 10-Q)filing
  51. 51The News Minute, 9 May 2018. Flipkart's co-founder Sachin Bansal to sell entire 5.5 pc stake for $1 bn (IANS)news
  52. 52Inc42, 26 January 2023. Tiger Global and Accel set to exit Flipkart (citing The Economic Times)news
  53. 53Inc42, 31 January 2018. Tiger Global, Accel and others sold Flipkart shares to SoftBanknews
  54. 54Business Today, 10 May 2018. Flipkart-Walmart deal: SoftBank, Tiger Global, Naspers make big gainsnews
  55. 55The News Minute, 31 July 2023. Walmart buys Tiger Global's remaining Flipkart stake for $1.4 bn (IANS)news
  56. 56Medianama, 23 June 2014. Naspers invested $51m in Flipkart in May 2014, now owns 17.7%news
  57. 57Medianama, 25 November 2014. Naspers' Flipkart investment reaches $495.5mnews
  58. 58Inc42, 26 June 2017. Naspers bought $71 Mn worth of Flipkart shares from existing shareholdersnews
  59. 59Naspers, 21 June 2019. Naspers full-year results for the year ended 31 March 2019press release
  60. 60eBay Inc. via SEC EDGAR, 31 October 2018. eBay 10-Q for Q3 2018 (proceeds from the sale of Flipkart)filing
  61. 61eBay Inc., 9 May 2018. eBay to Sell its Holdings in Flipkartpress release
  62. 62SoftBank Group Corp., 7 February 2018. Consolidated Financial Report for the nine months ended 31 December 2017filing
  63. 63SoftBank Group Corp., 5 November 2018. Consolidated Financial Report for the six months ended 30 September 2018filing
  64. 64Walmart Inc. (Thomson Reuters StreetEvents transcript), 9 May 2018. Walmart Inc to Invest in Flipkart Group: conference call transcriptpress release
  65. 65Inc42, 3 February 2018. Flipkart Losses Soar By 68% Despite 29% Growth In Revenue For FY17news
  66. 66Reserve Bank of India, 15 September 2018. Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy 2017-18, Table 142: exchange rate of the rupeedata
  67. 67Inc42, 26 February 2019. Flipkart Losses Increased Fivefold, Records 50% Jump in Revenue in FY18news
  68. 68Business Standard (PTI), 28 October 2018. Flipkart's FY18 losses narrow 29% to Rs 11.6 bn, revenues grow 48%news
  69. 69Inc42, 29 November 2018. Flipkart Vs Amazon India: Who Won The Indian Ecommerce Battle In 2018?news
  70. 70Entrackr, 22 March 2018. Online retail growth fastest in India, Amazon scores lead on Flipkart in metros: Forresternews
  71. 71RedSeer Consulting, 15 February 2018. E-tailing in India: RedSeer perspectivedata
  72. 72TechCrunch, 9 March 2026. Flipkart moves its headquarters back to India (TechCrunch, via Yahoo Finance)news
  73. 73Daily Excelsior, 15 October 2026. Flipkart group FY26 revenue rises 18 pc, operating loss narrows (PTI)news
  74. 74MediaNama, 17 October 2026. Flipkart's FY26 results: loss and revenuenews
  75. 75PYMNTS, 21 May 2023. Walmart gains e-commerce edge over Amazon in India (summarising the Financial Times)news
  76. 76Reuters, 9 May 2018. Walmart to pay $16 billion for control of India's Flipkart (Reuters, as carried by The Financial Express, Bangladesh)news
  77. 77Inc42, 17 August 2023. Walmart's second-quarter call: Flipkart and PhonePenews
  78. 78Bain & Company, 8 April 2026. How India Shops Online 2026analysis
  79. 79Inc42, 15 May 2026. Flipkart To Defer IPO Till 2028, Eyes EBITDA Profitability In FY27news
  80. 80Flipkart Stories, 23 September 2023. Supply chain: a Q&A with eKart's Hemant Badripress release
  81. 81TechCrunch, 24 January 2024. Meesho GMV tops $5B; app grows faster than Flipkart, Amazon Indianews
  82. 82Bain & Company, 11 October 2022. How India Shops Online 2022analysis
  83. 83Entrackr, 6 November 2019. Flipkart's financials reveal it as a full-blown retailer, not just a marketplacenews
  84. 84Yahoo Finance, 9 May 2018. AMZN daily closing prices, 8 to 11 May 2018 (chart data)data
  85. 85Amazon.com via SEC EDGAR, 27 April 2018. Amazon.com 10-Q for Q1 2018, cover page (shares outstanding)filing
  86. 86Amazon.com via SEC EDGAR, 2 February 2018. Amazon.com 10-K for 2017, consolidated statements of operationsfiling
  87. 87Yahoo Finance, 9 May 2018. BABA daily closing prices, 8 to 11 May 2018 (chart data)data
  88. 88Alibaba Group via SEC EDGAR, 27 July 2018. Alibaba Group 20-F for fiscal 2018, cover page (shares outstanding)filing
  89. 89Alibaba Group via SEC EDGAR, 4 May 2018. Alibaba Group Announces March Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2018 Results (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)filing
  90. 90Yahoo Finance, 9 May 2018. JD daily closing prices, 8 to 11 May 2018 (chart data)data
  91. 91JD.com via SEC EDGAR, 2 March 2018. JD.com Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)filing
  92. 92JD.com via SEC EDGAR, 27 April 2018. JD.com 20-F for 2017filing
  93. 93Yahoo Finance, 9 May 2018. MELI daily closing prices, 8 to 11 May 2018 (chart data)data
  94. 94MercadoLibre via SEC EDGAR, 8 May 2018. MercadoLibre 10-Q for Q1 2018, cover page (shares outstanding)filing
  95. 95MercadoLibre via SEC EDGAR, 23 February 2018. MercadoLibre 10-K for 2017filing
  96. 96Yahoo Finance, 9 May 2018. EBAY daily closing prices, 8 to 11 May 2018 (chart data)data
  97. 97eBay Inc. via SEC EDGAR, 26 April 2018. eBay 10-Q for Q1 2018, cover page (shares outstanding)filing
  98. 98eBay Inc., 31 January 2018. eBay Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Resultspress release
  99. 99Yahoo Finance, 9 May 2018. ZAL.DE daily closing prices, 8 to 11 May 2018 (chart data)data
  100. 100Zalando SE, 6 March 2018. Zalando SE Annual Report 2017filing
  101. 101US Federal Reserve, 14 May 2018. H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates, historical rates: eurodata
  102. 102Zalando SE, 28 February 2019. Zalando to Continue Strong Growth After Successful Finish to 2018 (key figures, with 2017 comparatives)press release
  103. 103Walmart Inc., 9 May 2018. Walmart and Flipkart: fact sheet on the investmentpress release
  104. 104Entrackr, 28 October 2019. Flipkart e-comm arm records 40% hike in losses to Rs 1,624 Crnews
  105. 105Entrackr, 12 November 2019. eKart is largest logistics firm in e-comm: posts Rs 4,422 Cr revenue, losses shrink by 41% in FY19news
  106. 106YourStory, 2 August 2017. E-commerce-focussed logistics companies riding the wave in India (Kalaari Capital's report)news
  107. 107YourStory, 3 February 2018. Flipkart's 68pc rise in FY17 losses masks a tale of extreme cost controlnews
  108. 108Business Today, 8 August 2018. Flipkart-Walmart deal: CCI nod to US retail giant's Flipkart acquisition for $16 billionnews
  109. 109The News Minute, 17 September 2018. Walmart paid withholding taxes for only 10 out of 44 shareholders in Flipkart deal (PTI)news
  110. 110Walmart Inc. via SEC EDGAR, 13 November 2018. Media statement on Binny Bansal's resignation (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)filing
  111. 111AZB & Partners, 11 January 2019. Review of FDI in e-commerceanalysis
  112. 112The News Minute, 14 July 2020. Flipkart raises $1.2 billion in funding round led by Walmartnews
  113. 113TechCrunch, 2 December 2020. PhonePe raises $700 million, becomes a separate entitynews
  114. 114Walmart Inc., 12 July 2021. Flipkart raises US$3.6 billion in funding to accelerate the growth of the consumer internet ecosystem in Indiapress release
  115. 115The Week, 5 August 2021. ED slaps Rs 10,600-cr FEMA contravention notice against Flipkart (PTI)news
  116. 116PhonePe, 23 December 2022. Flipkart completes full separation of PhonePepress release
  117. 117TechCrunch, 22 December 2022. Flipkart and PhonePe complete separationnews
  118. 118TechCrunch, 18 January 2023. India's PhonePe tops $12 billion valuation in new fundingnews
  119. 119Inc42, 22 May 2023. PhonePe raises $100 Mn more from General Atlantic; total fundraise reaches $850 Mnnews
  120. 120Business Today, 31 July 2023. Walmart buys out Tiger Global's stake in Flipkart for $1.4 billion: reportnews
  121. 121Walmart Inc. via SEC EDGAR, 1 September 2023. Walmart 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 July 2023, cash flow statementfiling
  122. 122Walmart Inc. via SEC EDGAR, 15 March 2024. Walmart 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 January 2024, shareholders' equity notefiling
  123. 123TechCrunch, 24 May 2024. Google invests $350 million in India's Flipkartnews
  124. 124Storyboard18, 22 December 2023. Walmart infuses $600 million in Flipkart as part of $1 billion round (Moneycontrol)news
  125. 125Outlook Business, 3 December 2025. Flipkart Says Order Surges 40% YoY Post-Festival; User Base Expands (PTI)news
  126. 126Moneylife, 15 January 2026. Supreme Court orders Tiger Global to pay capital gains tax on Flipkart dealnews
  127. 127TechCrunch, 15 January 2026. Tiger Global loses India tax case tied to Walmart-Flipkart dealnews
  128. 128Inc42, 9 March 2026. Flipkart completes reverse flip to India ahead of IPOnews
  129. 129TechCrunch, 16 March 2026. Walmart-backed PhonePe shelves IPO as global tensions rattle marketsnews
  130. 130Inc42, 16 September 2026. With UPI MDR clarity, PhonePe eyes IPO by March 2027news
  131. 131Storyboard18, 15 May 2026. Walmart pushes Flipkart to defer IPO, prioritise profitability target by FY27 (Moneycontrol)news
  132. 132Inc42, 11 July 2025. Flipkart announces $50 Mn ESOP buyback at $35 Bn valuationnews
  133. 133Storyboard18, 7 July 2026. Flipkart valuation climbs past $38 billion after latest ESOP buyback exercise (Moneycontrol)news
  134. 134The Week, 25 June 2019. Binny Bansal sells Flipkart shares worth Rs 530 cr to Walmart (PTI)news
  135. 135Global Corporate Venturing, 19 August 2021. PhonePe closes $700m roundnews
  136. 136Walmart Inc. via SEC EDGAR, 18 March 2022. Walmart 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 January 2022, shareholders' equity notefiling
  137. 137PhonePe, 17 March 2023. PhonePe raises $200 Mn in additional funding from Walmartpress release
  138. 138Inc42, 22 January 2026. PhonePe files updated DRHP for OFS-only IPOnews
  139. 139Aswath Damodaran, Musings on Markets, 22 May 2018. Walmart's India (Flipkart) Gambit: Growth Rebirth or Costly Facelift?analysis
  140. 140Forrester (Satish Meena), 15 May 2018. By Acquiring Flipkart, Walmart Gets Access To The Indian Market, For A Premiumanalysis
  141. 141Inc42, 31 May 2018. Amazon India chief Amit Agarwal claims Amazon is bigger than Flipkartnews

Every estimated number, and how we got it

Where no public source gives a number, we estimate it from ones that do and say how. Everything else on the page is Reported, with its source.

NumberValueMethod
Naspers and Iconiq join (August 2012): post-money valuation$1bnNaspers paid about $102.1m for 10% (MediaNama, from Naspers' disclosures), which values the company at about $1.02bn if all of it was new shares. Press estimates ran from $800m to $1bn.
$200m from existing investors (10 July 2013): post-money valuation$1.6bnNaspers paid about $140.1m for another 8.6% (MediaNama, from Naspers' results), which values the company at about $1.63bn.
Microsoft: stake before the deal1.6%Microsoft held 1.53% after the deal (paper.vc, via Inc42) and sold nothing. Before Walmart's new shares diluted it, that was about 1.6%.
Employee stock options: stake before the deal4.4%6,242,271 options outstanding divided by about 142.6 million fully diluted shares (136.4 million issued shares as converted, plus the options), all from the Share Issuance Agreement.
Others: stake before the deal14%100% minus every named holder above. Includes Iconiq, DST Global, Qatar Investment Authority, GIC, Steadview, Baillie Gifford, T. Rowe Price, Morgan Stanley funds and smaller holders, whose stakes are not public.
Sachin Bansal: Half of the founders' savings (October 2007)$4,500Half of the founders' ₹4 lakh, which The Next Web converted to about $9,000. No source splits it between the two founders.
Accel: Follow-on rounds of 2013 and 2014 (January 2014)$99mThe Economic Times put Accel's total investment at about $100m (other reports say $80m or $160m). The $99.2m left after the first cheque is placed between its July 2013 and August 2014 follow-on rounds.
Accel: Shares kept, at Walmart's price (18 August 2018)$287m1.38% of Flipkart after the deal (paper.vc, via Inc42) times Walmart's implied value of $20.8bn.
Tiger Global: All its rounds, 2010 to 2015 (December 2014)$1.2bnTiger told its investors it put in $1.2bn in all. Most of it went into the four big rounds between July 2014 and July 2015, so we place the whole $1.2bn in December 2014, the middle of that run.
Tiger Global: Shares sold to Walmart (18 August 2018)$2.9bnReports conflict ($1.6bn to $3bn). Tiger's own letter put its gain at $3.5bn on $1.2bn, so $4.7bn came back in all. Less the $424m from SoftBank and the $1.4bn from Walmart in 2023 leaves about $2.9bn for 2018.
Tiger Global: Shares kept, at Walmart's price (18 August 2018)$991m4.77% of Flipkart after the deal (paper.vc, via Inc42) times Walmart's implied value of $20.8bn. Tiger sold this stake to Walmart in 2023 for $1.4bn.
SoftBank Vision Fund: New shares and shares bought from other holders (November 2017)$2.5bnSoftBank's filings show $2.5bn paid between October and December 2017; we date it mid-November. Dated to the August 2017 announcement instead, the IRR would be about 51%.
SoftBank Vision Fund: Whole stake sold to Walmart (18 August 2018)$3.8bnSoftBank's reported cost of $2.5bn plus its reported realised gain of $1.3bn. The headline price was about $4bn, before money held back in escrow for claims.
Revenue, Flipkart Private Limited, Singapore parent, FY2017 (April 2016 to March 2017)$3bnRs 19,854 crore as reported, converted at the RBI's FY2017 average of Rs 67.07 to the dollar.
Net loss, including a large non-cash charge, Flipkart Private Limited, Singapore parent, FY2018$7.3bnRs 46,895 crore as reported, converted at the RBI's FY2018 average of Rs 64.45 to the dollar. Rs 40,937 crore of it is finance costs, mostly a non-cash charge on derivatives.
Loss before finance costs, Flipkart Private Limited, Singapore parent, FY2018$924mNet loss of Rs 46,895 crore less finance costs of Rs 40,937 crore, which leaves Rs 5,958 crore, converted at Rs 64.45 to the dollar. A rough stand-in for the operating loss.
Marketplace revenue as a share of GMV, Flipkart Internet (the marketplace) against standalone Flipkart GMV, FY20187.0%Flipkart Internet's FY2018 revenue from operations of Rs 2,790.2 crore, converted at Rs 64.45 to the dollar ($433m), divided by Barclays' estimate of standalone Flipkart GMV of $6.2bn.
GMV growth a year, Flipkart, FY2018 to 202520%From $7.5bn of GMV in the year to March 2018 to about $30bn in calendar 2025, 7.75 years later: (30 ÷ 7.5) ^ (1 ÷ 7.75) − 1. The two figures may not cover exactly the same businesses.
Revenue, Flipkart Group (consolidated), FY2026 (April 2025 to March 2026)$16.7bn₹1,45,880 crore as reported, converted at about ₹87.5 to the dollar.
Net loss, Flipkart Group (consolidated), FY2026$968m₹8,468 crore as reported, converted at about ₹87.5 to the dollar.
Advertising income, Flipkart Group (consolidated), FY2026$1.1bn₹9,597 crore as reported (up 31%), converted at about ₹87.5 to the dollar.
Fall in delivery cost per shipment, a year, Indian e-commerce (Bain), 2018 to 20218.0%The middle of Bain's 7% to 9% a year.
Advertising and business promotion spending, Flipkart Group (consolidated), FY2026$565m₹4,941 crore as reported, converted at about ₹87.5 to the dollar.
Staff costs, share-based pay included, Flipkart Group (consolidated), FY2026$957m₹8,376 crore as reported, of which ₹2,922 crore was share-based pay, converted at about ₹87.5 to the dollar.
Staff costs, Flipkart Group (Singapore parent), FY2018$416mFY2019 staff costs of ₹4,254 crore were 58.5% up on FY2018, which puts FY2018 at about ₹2,684 crore; converted at ₹64.45 to the dollar.
Amazon: market value$780bnClosing price on 9 May 2018 of $1,608.00 (before the 2022 split) times 485,226,904 shares from the 10-Q cover.
Alibaba: market value$503bnClosing price on 9 May 2018 of $195.43 per share times 2,571,929,843 shares from the 20-F cover.
JD.com: market value$53bnClosing price on 9 May 2018 of $37.14 per ADS (two shares each) times 1,426m ADS equivalents from the 2,852.7m shares on the year-end balance sheet.
JD.com: GMV, 2017$199bnRMB 1,294.5bn of GMV from the 20-F, converted at JD's own rate of 6.5063 yuan to the dollar.
MercadoLibre: market value$14.4bnClosing price on 9 May 2018 of $325.31 times 44,157,364 shares from the 10-Q cover.
eBay: market value$38bnClosing price on 9 May 2018 of $38.23 times 993,978,034 shares from the 10-Q cover.
Zalando: market value$12.8bnClosing price on 9 May 2018 of EUR 43.81 times 247,384,898 shares (2017 annual report), converted at $1.1852 to the euro.
Zalando: GMV, 2017$6.5bnEUR 5.49bn of GMV for 2017 (published as the comparative in Zalando's 2018 results), converted at $1.1852 to the euro.
Zalando: revenue, 2017$5.3bnEUR 4,489.0m of revenue for 2017, converted at $1.1852 to the euro.
Model start: orders per shopper, FY20183.7About 200 million orders ÷ 54 million active customers. Flipkart never published an order count: GMV of $7.5bn ÷ RedSeer's 2017 industry average order of about $38 gives about 200 million, in line with Walmart's 261 million units sold and Ekart's 500,000 deliveries a day.
Model start: spend per order, FY2018$37.50GMV of $7.5bn ÷ about 200 million orders (see orders per shopper). About ₹2,417 an order at ₹64.45 to the dollar.
Model start: commission and fees as a share of GMV, FY20189.6%The group's revenue of ₹30,164 crore less ₹25,234 crore from selling goods leaves about ₹4,930 crore of fees from sellers, delivery and advertising; less about ₹288 crore of advertising, ÷ GMV of about ₹48,341 crore ($7.5bn at ₹64.45).
Model start: advertising income as a share of GMV, FY20180.6%Flipkart's marketplace earned ₹576 crore from advertising in FY2019, double the year before, so about ₹288 crore in FY2018; ÷ GMV of about ₹48,341 crore.
Model start: delivery cost per order, FY2018$2.36Ekart, Flipkart's delivery arm, spent ₹3,037 crore in FY2018 ($471m at ₹64.45), spread over about 200 million orders. Ekart carried most orders; couriers for the rest are counted in overheads. Industry estimates were about $2 a delivery in 2017.
Model start: marketing and discounts as a share of GMV, FY20187.2%₹1,850 crore of advertising and promotion, plus about ₹1,643 crore by which the wholesale arm sold goods below what they cost (₹25,234 crore of sales against ₹26,877 crore of cost), ÷ GMV of about ₹48,341 crore. A floor: discounts paid for by brands and sellers are not in it, and the press put all-in cash burn at 12% to 15% of GMV.
Model start: operating loss, FY2018−⁠$924mFlipkart's FY2018 net loss of ₹46,895 crore less ₹40,937 crore of finance costs, mostly a non-cash charge, leaves ₹5,958 crore, about $924m at ₹64.45 to the dollar. It covers the whole group.
PhonePe: $850m round, after the money (22 May 2023)$12.9bn$12bn before the money (TechCrunch, PhonePe) plus the $850m raised (Inc42).
Walmart so far: Flipkart round (14 July 2020)$1.2bnWalmart led the $1.2bn round and never disclosed its share; we assume it put in all of it, so this is an upper bound.
Walmart so far: PhonePe round, first half (December 2020)$284mWalmart put $283.5m into the second $350m tranche; we assume the same into the first.
Walmart so far: Flipkart round (12 July 2021)$400mThe round raised $3.6bn, of which $3.2bn came from outside investors according to Walmart's 10-K; the remaining $0.4bn is taken as Walmart's.
Walmart so far: Flipkart stake at the latest price (20 October 2026)$32.1bnAbout 84% of Flipkart (85% at January 2024 per Walmart's 10-K, less about a point for Google's 2024 investment) times $38.2bn, the price of the July 2026 option buyback.
Walmart so far: PhonePe stake at the IPO target (20 October 2026)$7.2bn71.77% of PhonePe (its updated IPO prospectus) times $10bn, the revived IPO target.

Terms used

  • Active shopper: someone who bought at least once in the year. Flipkart and Walmart call them active customers.
  • Advertising income: what sellers and brands pay a marketplace to put their products in front of more shoppers.
  • Breakeven: the point where a business stops losing money.
  • Cap table: the list of who owns what share of a company.
  • Commission and fees: what a marketplace charges sellers on each sale, including fees for payments and delivery.
  • EBITDA: earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation; a rough measure of operating profit.
  • Escrow: part of a sale price held back for a while, to cover claims.
  • Exit multiple: the value of a business at the end of a holding period, as a multiple of its yearly revenue.
  • Fiscal year (FY): a company's accounting year. Flipkart's runs from April to March, so FY2018 is April 2017 to March 2018.
  • Fully diluted: counting every share that could exist, including those employees could get from their options.
  • Funding round: a sale of new shares to investors at an agreed price.
  • GMV (gross merchandise value): the total value of goods ordered through a store in a year, before returns.
  • IPO (initial public offering): a company's first sale of shares on a stock exchange.
  • IRR (internal rate of return): the yearly return that makes money in and money out balance once timing is counted.
  • Log scale: an axis on which each step is ten times the one before.
  • Market value: a listed company's share price times its number of shares.
  • Markdown: a fund's own cut to the value it reports for shares it owns. No shares change hands.
  • Multiple: money out divided by money in.
  • Net sales: the revenue a company books from what it sells, after discounts and returns.
  • New money: cash paid into a company for new shares, rather than to existing shareholders.
  • Overheads: costs that do not rise with each order, such as staff, technology and offices.
  • Paper value: the value of shares still held, at a stated price, rather than cash received.
  • Post-money and pre-money valuation: what a company is worth just after, and just before, new money arrives.
  • Stake: the share of a company someone owns.
  • Take rate: the share of each sale a marketplace keeps as its own revenue.
  • Target return: the yearly return an investor needs for a bet to be worth its risk; also called a hurdle rate.
  • UPI: India's instant bank-to-bank payment system, used by apps such as PhonePe.
  • Valuation: what a whole company is worth at the price paid in a deal.